The live solar information is important in Aurora forecast, as coronal holes, solar flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are responsible for geomagnetic storms. The Bz component does the same, however, its value should be negative for a nice display of the Aurora.
In function of the current Auroral conditions (Kp), the solar wind speed and density can boost the confidence of the possibility of seeing the Northern Lights. The solar wind live data is extremely useful for enhancing the prediction of the short time Aurora. Please read The Northern Lights page for more details about Kp. The higher the Kp value, the higher probability for (more intense) Aurorae. Vadsø, as well as the whole region of Varanger, is situated in a Kp 0 territory, thus a Kp of 0 is theoretically needed for the Northern Lights to occur. The Kp index is a calculated value that quantifies the disturbance of Earth's magnetic field, thus how far South Auroras can be theoretically seen in the Northern Hemisphere (and, similarly, how far north Auroras can be seen in the Southern hemisphere).
#CHANCE OF SEEING NORTHERN LIGHTS TONIGHT PROFESSIONAL#
Note that you also need a clear sky to see the Aurora! However, if you do visit us here in Vadsø, you can listen to the Northern Lights even if it's cloudy or even in summer! Or, to scientifically maximize your chances to see the Aurora with a professional guide, why not join our Hunt the Aurora or the Hunt & Hear the Aurora activities! Just find your location on the mini-map and see if the theoretical Aurora (in green/orange/red) extends over the location you're interested in! The color legend is at the bottom of each image (green = lower probability ranging from 0-50% yellow-orange = higher probability ranging from 50-90% red = highest probability, over 90%). The 30 minutes Aurora forecast is very useful for short time predictions.
Sun data is courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams. Aurora model and live solar wind data comes from NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Space Weather Prediction Center. What's the probability of seeing the Aurora Borealis or the Northern Lights tonight? 30 minutes forecast for both the Northern and the Southern Lights and live solar wind data right at your fingertips.
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